How to bet UFC 224
Reed KuhnESPN INSIDER
The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro this weekend for UFC 224, and it stacked the card with plenty of star power for the local fans.Amanda Nunes will make her third title defense, and we'll see two former Brazilian champions open the card. Brazilians tend to be favored in local events, so usually the question for gamblers is whether the juice is worth it or if there's a crowd-silencing upset in the works.
Note: Fight odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, unless otherwise specified, as of May 10. Raw data is provided by FightMetric.
Note: Fight odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, unless otherwise specified, as of May 10. Raw data is provided by FightMetric.
Women's bantamweight title: Champion Amanda Nunes (-1400) vs. No. 2 Raquel Pennington (+800)
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<aside class="inline inline-table" style='background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI","Roboto","Oxygen","Ubuntu","Cantarell","Fira Sans","Droid Sans","Helvetica Neue",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;'>Amanda Nunes vs. Raquel Pennington| Category | Nunes | Pennington |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | WBW | WBW |
| Age | 29.9 | 29.7 |
| Height | 68 | 67 |
| Reach | 69 | 67.5 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Analyzed minutes | 76.2 | 105.0 |
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored:Received) | 2:0 | 0:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 41% | 32% |
| Head power accuracy | 42% | 36% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Total head strike defense | 78% | 80% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("chin") | 100% | 100% |
| TD attempts per min. standing/clinch | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Takedown accuracy | 35% | 43% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 16 | 33 |
| Takedown defense | 75% | 70% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 20% | 13% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.31 | 0.45 |
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The market was slow to accept Nunes as a champion, three times making her the underdog in a title fight. Now a trio of championship wins later, she's finally a favorite, and the market has gone crazy. Opening at -530, Nunes is flying at -1400 through fight week, holding the type of massive favorite position that was formerly reserved for dominant superstars like Ronda Rousey and Cris Cyborg. Performance metrics agree with the champ's edge, but it's likely Pennington's lack of name recognition is inflating the price. Pennington has been solid while standing, just not as remarkable as Nunes. And while Pennington has spent her fair share of time grinding on the mat, Nunes is a natural grappler with a more seasoned submission game. Pennington isn't bad on paper; she just lacks a superlative finishing threat to give her a path to victory against an opponent who stacks up so favorably in all positions.
Insider recommends: We've loved Nunes as an underdog several times, but with extreme odds, there's very little value in supporting her straight up. We agree with Nunes as a strong favorite but think Pennington puts up a decent fight, at least for a while. Alternative betting angles are the over on 2.5 rounds at +115, or Nunes inside the distance at -175 (5Dimes), expecting that she eventually puts Pennington in a position she can't get out of.
Middleweights: No. 2 Ronaldo Souza (-145) vs. No. 5 Kelvin Gastelum (+125)Insider recommends: We've loved Nunes as an underdog several times, but with extreme odds, there's very little value in supporting her straight up. We agree with Nunes as a strong favorite but think Pennington puts up a decent fight, at least for a while. Alternative betting angles are the over on 2.5 rounds at +115, or Nunes inside the distance at -175 (5Dimes), expecting that she eventually puts Pennington in a position she can't get out of.
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| Category | Souza | Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | MW | MW |
| Age | 38.4 | 26.5 |
| Height | 73 | 69 |
| Reach | 74 | 71.5 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Analyzed minutes | 168.1 | 150.1 |
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored:Received) | 3:2 | 8:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 3.0% | 4.5% |
| Head jab accuracy | 21% | 36% |
| Head power accuracy | 27% | 33% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Total head strike defense | 74% | 73% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("chin") | 98% | 100% |
| TD attempts per min. standing/clinch | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Takedown accuracy | 46% | 50% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 10 | 53 |
| Takedown defense | 70% | 58% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 31% | 11% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.38 | 0.06 |
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Gastelum has compiled an impressive record of knocking out high-profile opponents who were a bit past their prime, and Souza is certainly at risk of joining those ranks. Both men came close to a UFC title shot, and the winner potentially puts himself in contention. Both are extremely dangerous if they put the fight in the position they want. Gastelum will want to use his hand speed advantage at a distance, while Souza will want to exploit Gastelum's mediocre takedown defense to work submissions. Knowing this, we could see some stalemates against the fence as they battle for position control. Souza may not have a strong takedown success rate, but it's his relentless pressure that eventually puts him in dominant position on the ground.
Insider recommends: Souza has only fallen to title-caliber talent and will enter a friendly home cage knowing that his jiu-jitsu will be his best path to victory. Souza at -145 is a reasonable price to pay assuming he'll eventually get the fight down and either win rounds or set up a choke. He just can't test his chin too often against the speedy and accurate Gastelum. Should the Souza price drift too high, look to hedge on Gastelum by TKO well above +200 (5Dimes).
Insider recommends: Souza has only fallen to title-caliber talent and will enter a friendly home cage knowing that his jiu-jitsu will be his best path to victory. Souza at -145 is a reasonable price to pay assuming he'll eventually get the fight down and either win rounds or set up a choke. He just can't test his chin too often against the speedy and accurate Gastelum. Should the Souza price drift too high, look to hedge on Gastelum by TKO well above +200 (5Dimes).
Middleweights: No. 12 Lyoto Machida (-275) vs. No. 9 Vitor Belfort (+225)
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| Category | Machida | Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Last fight weight class | MW | MW |
| Age | 39.9 | 41.1 |
| Height | 73.0 | 72.0 |
| Reach | 74.0 | 74.0 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Analyzed minutes | 255 Mins | 122 Mins |
| Total knockdown ratio (Scored:Received) | 13:3 | 8:5 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 7.6% | 10.7% |
| Head jab accuracy | 38% | 35% |
| Head power accuracy | 33% | 27% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Total head strike defense | 80% | 76% |
| Distance knockdown defense ("chin") | 96% | 88% |
| TD attempts per min. standing/clinch | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Takedown accuracy | 64% | 75% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 74 | 38 |
| Takedown defense | 77% | 66% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 70% | 16% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.26 | 0.31 |
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<strike></strike>It's a rare Brazil vs. Brazil matchup between two fighters who appeared dominant in their prime but are no longer in the good graces of Father Time. While both own BJJ black belts, they haven't utilized the ground game often and are normally busy defending takedowns to ensure the fight stays where they have the biggest advantage -- striking from a distance. These two have scored a combined 21 knockdowns, both at rates far beyond even the heavyweight average for knockdown power. Should they decide to trade leather, the combination of their assets and now advancing age means this could be over in a flash from either side. Stylistically, the two are quite different strikers. Machida uses a measured and patient karate style and likes to remain in motion until his timing feels right. Meanwhile, Belfort has a low total output but swings for the fences when he suddenly engages in a flurry. Unfortunately, we can't bet on a double knockout, so the critical question will be whether Belfort's aggression is successful before Machida's precise counterstriking ends the exchange.
Insider recommends: Even at the current price, Machida is a worthy parlay anchor, but not a big one given the risk of Belfort's pressure game. For prop hunters, consider a plus-money play on Machida by TKO at +145 (5Dimes), or hedge on Belfort to find his mark with a "fight does not go the distance" play at -150 (5Dimes).<strike></strike>
<strike></strike><strike></strike>Insider recommends: Even at the current price, Machida is a worthy parlay anchor, but not a big one given the risk of Belfort's pressure game. For prop hunters, consider a plus-money play on Machida by TKO at +145 (5Dimes), or hedge on Belfort to find his mark with a "fight does not go the distance" play at -150 (5Dimes).<strike></strike>
